[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices edged down slightly on October 20, as China and the U.S. agreed to hold a new round of trade consultations as soon as possible.

SMM Nickel October 20 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) On the morning of October 18, Beijing time, He Lifeng, China's lead representative on economic and trade issues and Vice Premier of the State Council, held a video call with his U.S. counterparts, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides conducted candid, in-depth, and constructive exchanges on important issues in bilateral economic and trade relations, focusing on implementing the important consensus reached by the two heads of state in their previous calls this year, and agreed to hold a new round of China-U.S. economic and trade consultations as soon as possible.

(2) The Ministry of Finance released the fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first three quarters of 2025. Stamp tax revenue was 314.2 billion yuan, up 34.5% YoY. Within this, the securities transaction stamp tax was 144.8 billion yuan, up 103.4% YoY. According to previously released data from the Ministry of Finance, the securities transaction stamp tax revenue from January to August 2025 was 118.7 billion yuan, up 81.7% YoY. This implies that the securities transaction stamp tax in September 2025 was 26.1 billion yuan, up 3.98% MoM from 25.1 billion yuan in August. Furthermore, the securities transaction stamp tax in September 2024 was 5.9 billion yuan; calculated accordingly, the figure for September 2025 surged 342.37% YoY.

Spot Market:

On October 20, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 120,700-123,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,100 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,400-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-200 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) opened lower across the board today, opening at 120,480 yuan/mt (down 860 yuan). It experienced a slight increase during the session, showing a pattern of consolidation.

The video call between Vice Premier He Lifeng and his U.S. counterparts, Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer, where both sides agreed to hold new economic and trade talks soon, alleviated market concerns about escalating trade friction. The current focus of market attention is the policy direction of the US Fed. Although expectations for an interest rate cut exist, the specific timing and magnitude remain uncertain. Against a backdrop of weak fundamentals and a volatile external environment, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract referenced in the range of 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.